Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Facts dont change peoples minds. Heres what does.
Facts donât change peopleâs minds. Hereâs what does. Facts donât change peopleâs minds. Hereâs what does. If you had asked me this question â" How do you change a mind? â" two years ago, I would have given you a different answer.As a former scientist, I would have cautioned you to rely on objective facts and statistics. Develop a strong case for your side, back it up with hard, cold, irrefutable data, and voila!Drowning the other person with facts, I assumed, was the best way to prove that global warming is real, the war on drugs has failed, or the current business strategy adopted by your risk-averse boss with zero imagination is not working.Since then, Iâve discovered a significant problem with this approach.It doesnât work.The mind doesnât follow the facts. Facts, as John Adams put it, are stubborn things, but our minds are even more stubborn. Doubt isnât always resolved in the face of facts for even the most enlightened among us, however credible and convincing those facts might be.As a result of the well-documented confirmation bias, we tend to undervalue evidence that con tradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. We filter out inconvenient truths and arguments on the opposing side. As a result, our opinions solidify, and it becomes increasingly harder to disrupt established patterns of thinking.We believe in alternative facts if they support our pre-existing beliefs. Aggressively mediocre corporate executives remain in office because we interpret the evidence to confirm the accuracy of our initial hiring decision. Doctors continue to preach the ills of dietary fat despite emerging research to the contrary.If you have any doubts about the power of the confirmation bias, think back to the last time you Googled a question. Did you meticulously read each link to get a broad objective picture? Or did you simply skim through the links looking for the page that confirms what you already believed was true? And letâs face it, youâll always find that page, especially if youâre willing to click through to Page 12 on the Google search results.If facts donât work, how do you change a mind â" whether itâs your own or your neighborâs?Give the mind an outWeâre reluctant to acknowledge mistakes. To avoid admitting we were wrong, weâll twist ourselves into positions that even seasoned yogis canât hold.The key is to trick the mind by giving it an excuse. Convince your own mind (or your friend) that your prior decision or prior belief was the right one given what you knew, but now that the underlying facts have changed, so should the mind.But instead of giving the mind an out, we often go for a punch to the gut. We belittle the other person (âI told you soâ). We ostracize (âBasket of deplorablesâ). We ridicule (âWhat an idiotâ).Schadenfreude might be your favorite pastime, but it has the counterproductive effect of activating the other personâs defenses and solidifying their positions. The moment you belittle the mind for believing in something, youâve lost the battle. At that point, the min d will dig in rather than give in. Once youâve equated someoneâs beliefs with idiocracy, changing that personâs mind will require nothing short of an admission that they are unintelligent. And thatâs an admission that most minds arenât willing to make.Democrats in the United States are already falling into this trap. Theyâre not going to win the 2020 presidential elections by convincing Donald Trump supporters that they were wrong to vote for him last November or that theyâre responsible for his failures in office. Instead, as author and psychology professor Robert Cialdini explains, Democrats must offer Trump supporters a way to get out of their prior commitment while saving face: âWell, of course you were in a position to make that decision in November because no one knew about X.âColombians adopted a similar strategy in the 1950s when the Rojas dictatorship collapsed. As I explain in my forthcoming book, although the Colombian military was complicit in the abuse s of the Rojas regime, civilians deftly avoided pointing any fingers at the military. Instead, they managed to march the military back to the barracks with its dignity intact. They recognized that they would need the militaryâs cooperation both during the transition process and in its aftermath. So they offered an alternative narrative for public consumption that uncoupled the armed forces from the Rojas regime. In this narrative, which the military leaders found much easier to swallow, it was the âpresidential familyâ and a few corrupt civilians close to Rojas - not military officers - who were responsible for the regimeâs excesses. Were they to take a different approach, a military dictatorship- not democracy- may have resulted.Your beliefs are not you.In my early years in academia, I would tend to get defensive when someone challenged one of my arguments during a presentation. My heart rate would skyrocket, I would tense up, and my answer would reflect the disdain with which I viewed the antagonistic question (and the questioner).I know Iâm not alone here. We all tend to identify with our beliefs and arguments.This is my business.This is my article.This is my idea.But hereâs the problem. When your beliefs are entwined with your identity, changing your mind means changing your identity. Thatâs a really hard sell.A possible solution, and one that Iâve adopted in my own life, is to put a healthy separation between you and the products of you. I changed my vocabulary to reflect this mental shift. At conferences, instead of saying, âIn this paper, I argue â¦,â I began to say âThis paper argues ⦠âThis subtle verbal tweak tricked my mind into thinking that my arguments and me were not one and the same. Obviously, I was the one who came up with these arguments, but once they were out of my body, they took a life of their own. They became separate, abstract objects that I could view with some objectivity.It was no longer personal. It wa s simply a hypothesis proven wrong.Build up your empathy musclePlaying Al Goreâs Inconvenient Truth on repeat to a room of Detroit auto workers wonât change their mind on global warming if theyâre convinced your agenda will put them out of a job.Humans operate on different frequencies. If someone disagrees with you, itâs not because theyâre wrong, and youâre right. Itâs because they believe something that you donât believe.The challenge is to figure out what that thing is and adjust your frequency. If employment is the primary concern of the Detroit auto worker, showing him images of endangered penguins (as adorable as they may be) or Antarcticaâs melting glaciers will get you nowhere. Instead, show him how renewable energy will provide job security to his grandchildren. Now, youâve got his attention.Get out of your echo chamber.We live in a perpetual echo chamber. We friend people like us on Facebook. We follow people like us on Twitter. We read the news outlets that are on the same political frequency as us.This means our opinions arenât being stress tested nearly as frequently as they should.Make a point to befriend people who disagree with you. Expose yourself to environments where your opinions can be challenged, as uncomfortable and awkward as that might be.Marc Andreessen has a saying that I love: âStrong beliefs, loosely held.â Strongly believe in an idea, but be willing to change your opinion if the facts show otherwise.Ask yourself, âWhat fact would change one of my strongly held opinions?â If the answer is âno fact would change my opinion,â youâre in trouble. A person who is unwilling to change his or her mind even with an underlying change in the facts is, by definition, a fundamentalist.In the end, it takes courage and determination to see the truth instead of the convenient.But itâs well worth the effort.Ozan Varol is a rocket scientist turned law professor and bestselling author. Click here to download a f ree copy of his e-book, The Contrarian Handbook: 8 Principles for Innovating Your Thinking. Along with your free e-book, youâll get the Weekly Contrarian - a newsletter that challenges conventional wisdom and changes the way we look at the world (plus access to exclusive content for subscribers only).This article first appeared on ozanvarol.com.
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